Investor Insights For Uncertain Markets: Special Market Dispatch

Keep Calm, Carry On

Written by Chris Raper, CIM, CFP

Co-Founder, Wealth Advisor, Cross Border Specialist

Aspira Wealth

YYC, Thursday, April 3, 2025, 11:00 PM Mountain Time

I am writing this missive from Calgary airport and yes, I splurged for a lounge pass to do so.

After a gut punching decline of almost 5% in the U.S. S&P 500 today, the U.S. futures are showing a further decline for tomorrow. Much of this turmoil seems to stem from President Trump's seemingly unpredictable trade tariffs, which continue to unsettle investors globally. The $USD has been melted down since he took office, as global investors that were heavily skewed towards the U.S. sell the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA) and convert their $USDs into… gold. Not exclusively of course, but it is easy to follow the money flow. One has to wonder how this helps America.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

At times like this, I find it helpful to step back and consider the investor psychology when this all began.

You may be encouraged to know that investor sentiment has been “fearful” and “extremely fearful” for the last five weeks, as measured by both the CNN Fear Greed Index and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. Furthermore, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey hit a low of 57 last week, which just adds further evidence of overall bearishness.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

As you can appreciate, these are contrary indicators.

Things tend to be cheap when investors are fearful, and really expensive when investors are buoyant. The track record of buying at these extremes is rather extraordinary. The pushback of course is “it is different this time”, and you are right. It is also true that it was different during Covid, during the global financial crisis of 2008/09, during 911, during the dotcom bust, during the long-term capital meltdown, and a host of others that I have long forgotten. What is not different is how a lot of investors reacted. They sold while they were scared and only invested when they felt good, which is a recipe for poverty. What is interesting to me is that we got through every one of those crises and went on to prosper. My belief is that this selloff will resolve itself the same way. Companies, and the world, will adjust and prosper, and I believe we will too.

I also find it helpful to think carefully about what we own.

That is fairly easy for me because I own a sleeve of every investment strategy we operate - and I buy and sell at the same time and same price as you do. Whether you participate in our Fixed Income Cheap and Cheerful, Tax Advantaged Preferred Shares, Dividend Value Discipline™, Keep More Income strategy and/or Next Cycle Resource Fund, virtually everything we buy pays an income – interest or dividends. That cash flow is important, and it doesn’t stop just because investors are fearful. That helps us get through the tough times, which we fully intend to do.

There is no question, the world has changed and so have we.

We have far less investments in the U.S. than we did 3 months ago. We have more exposure to the gold complex than we have had in my entire 30-year career and those positions barely budged today. While Trump’s trade tariffs are on every headline today, recall that Trump’s implied abandonment of NATO resulted in Germany announcing they are now going to triple their defence spending versus last 10 years. Our thinking is that others, including Canada, will be forced to follow suit. That is a powerful driver for the resource sector, ergo Canada.

Let’s not underestimate Canada.

The silver lining in President Trump’s belligerent attitude towards Canada is that we as a nation are starting to get our mojo back. Many Canadians now believe we need to increase Canadian energy exports by building pipelines from west to east. Even most Quebecers are in agreement, and dissenting politicians will change their stripes. It is time for us to pull up our bootstraps. We have done it before, Canada, and we can do it again. Jason Kenney posted on X today that during World War II Canada went from six to 471 naval vessels in the span of six years, which is a great reminder of what we can do when circumstances are forced upon us. I believe we are living in another moment in history that can push Canada forward.

Alex will be back late next week with his Quarterly Compass, including performance numbers for each of the mandates and how we are adjusting to the current realities.

Keep Calm, Carry On.

Chris Raper, CIM, CFP^®

Co-Founder | Wealth Advisor | Cross Border Specialist

Aspira Wealth of Raymond James Ltd.

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